Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

MEL

Moses Leo

Melbourne Storm · vs CBY

12.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

58% (7/12)

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Avg

12.1

12.0

L10

12.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 vs CBY

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 6.7°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mosesvs all playersStatCBY concedePer game

138.6Run Metres1567.8

4.1Tackle Breaks33.7

6.8Tackles358.3

0.7Tries3.9

0.0Try Assists3.0

1.0Line Breaks4.0

0.3Offloads9.3

37.1Post Contact Metres511.3

Run Metres

Moses138.6

CBY1567.8

Tackle Breaks

Moses4.1

CBY33.7

Tackles

Moses6.8

CBY358.3

Tries

Moses0.7

CBY3.9

Try Assists

Moses0.0

CBY3.0

Line Breaks

Moses1.0

CBY4.0

Offloads

Moses0.3

CBY9.3

Post Contact Metres

Moses37.1

CBY511.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

CBY concede · Runs

181.4per game · league avg 186.4

#13 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Runs

At AAMI Park13.7(7)+4.1

Everywhere else9.6(7)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)13.0(1)+1.5

Dry games11.5(13)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.