Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

DOL

Morgan Knowles

Dolphins · @ BRI

34.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

53% (9/17)

enter odds to compare

Avg

34.4

33.8

L10

33.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Morganvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

71.9Run Metres1842.7

0.2Tackle Breaks31.7

34.4Tackles323.2

0.1Tries4.3

0.0Try Assists3.2

0.1Line Breaks4.7

0.2Offloads10.1

25.1Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Morgan71.9

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Morgan0.2

BRI31.7

Tackles

Morgan34.4

BRI323.2

Tries

Morgan0.1

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Morgan0.0

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Morgan0.1

BRI4.7

Offloads

Morgan0.2

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Morgan25.1

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Tackles

323.2per game · league avg 345.6

#16 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Suncorp Stadium35.9(9)+3.1

Everywhere else32.8(8)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)34.7(3)+0.3

Dry games34.4(14)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.