Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Darcy Fogarty

Adelaide · @ ESS

4.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

42% (5/12)

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Avg

4.8

5.6

L10

4.8

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Darcyvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

11.8Disposals398.8

8.0Kicks232.6

4.8Marks116.9

2.3Tackles50.5

0.3Clearances33.3

1.7Inside 50s55.1

5.6Contested Poss.121.4

2.1Goals15.0

Disposals

Darcy11.8

ESS398.8

Kicks

Darcy8.0

ESS232.6

Marks

Darcy4.8

ESS116.9

Tackles

Darcy2.3

ESS50.5

Clearances

Darcy0.3

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Darcy1.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Darcy5.6

ESS121.4

Goals

Darcy2.1

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Marks

116.9per game · league avg 93.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Marks

At Docklands4.3(10)-0.1

Everywhere else4.4(117)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.6(12)+0.2

Dry games4.3(115)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.