Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Nate Caddy

Essendon · vs ADE

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

35% (6/17)

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Avg

1.3

0.8

L10

1.2

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Natevs all playersStatADE concedePer game

9.9Disposals356.6

7.7Kicks210.2

4.2Marks80.6

1.3Tackles60.7

0.2Clearances39.3

1.9Inside 50s52.4

3.7Contested Poss.138.8

1.9Goals11.1

Disposals

Nate9.9

ADE356.6

Kicks

Nate7.7

ADE210.2

Marks

Nate4.2

ADE80.6

Tackles

Nate1.3

ADE60.7

Clearances

Nate0.2

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Nate1.9

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Nate3.7

ADE138.8

Goals

Nate1.9

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands1.1(16)-0.2

Everywhere else1.3(28)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.1(7)-0.1

Dry games1.2(37)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.