Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Durham

Essendon · vs ADE

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

59% (10/17)

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Avg

3.7

3.6

L10

3.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

20.6Disposals356.6

9.6Kicks210.2

3.5Marks80.6

3.7Tackles60.7

4.3Clearances39.3

4.2Inside 50s52.4

9.1Contested Poss.138.8

0.5Goals11.1

Disposals

Sam20.6

ADE356.6

Kicks

Sam9.6

ADE210.2

Marks

Sam3.5

ADE80.6

Tackles

Sam3.7

ADE60.7

Clearances

Sam4.3

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Sam4.2

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Sam9.1

ADE138.8

Goals

Sam0.5

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands3.0(40)-0.1

Everywhere else3.1(68)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(10)-0.1

Dry games3.1(98)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.