Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Zach Reid

Essendon · vs ADE

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

1.3

1.4

L10

1.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs ADE

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Zachvs all playersStatADE concedePer game

13.6Disposals356.6

9.2Kicks210.2

5.7Marks80.6

1.3Tackles60.7

0.1Clearances39.3

0.4Inside 50s52.4

2.9Contested Poss.138.8

0.1Goals11.1

Disposals

Zach13.6

ADE356.6

Kicks

Zach9.2

ADE210.2

Marks

Zach5.7

ADE80.6

Tackles

Zach1.3

ADE60.7

Clearances

Zach0.1

ADE39.3

Inside 50s

Zach0.4

ADE52.4

Contested Poss.

Zach2.9

ADE138.8

Goals

Zach0.1

ADE11.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ADE concede · Tackles

60.7per game · league avg 56.9

#6 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Docklands2.6(12)+1.0

Everywhere else1.6(25)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)2.8(5)+1.0

Dry games1.8(32)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.