Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Grlj

Richmond · vs WCE

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

63% (10/16)

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Avg

0.8

1.0

L10

0.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs WCE

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Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 13:10☁ 16.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 19.9 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatWCE concedePer game

14.9Disposals371.4

8.1Kicks215.1

2.9Marks96.1

2.6Tackles61.7

0.5Clearances38.9

2.1Inside 50s52.9

2.9Contested Poss.133.7

0.1Goals14.7

Disposals

Sam14.9

WCE371.4

Kicks

Sam8.1

WCE215.1

Marks

Sam2.9

WCE96.1

Tackles

Sam2.6

WCE61.7

Clearances

Sam0.5

WCE38.9

Inside 50s

Sam2.1

WCE52.9

Contested Poss.

Sam2.9

WCE133.7

Goals

Sam0.1

WCE14.7

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

WCE concede · Frees For

20.6per game · league avg 19.0

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At M.C.G.1.1(9)+0.7

Everywhere else0.4(7)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(2)+0.2

Dry games0.8(14)

Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.