Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Tom Stewart

Geelong · @ COL

5.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

56% (9/16)

enter odds to compare

Avg

5.8

7.2

L10

6.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 21 @ COL

Enter odds and a stake to track this bet. You'll settle it by hand on the bets page — nothing grades itself.

Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-07-30 19:30☁ 9°C☂ 0.2mm (1%)🌬 5.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Tomvs all playersStatCOL concedePer game

20.9Disposals389.3

15.1Kicks227.3

5.0Marks105.6

1.6Tackles48.4

0.6Clearances35.6

1.0Inside 50s55.2

6.1Contested Poss.128.0

0.1Goals11.6

Disposals

Tom20.9

COL389.3

Kicks

Tom15.1

COL227.3

Marks

Tom5.0

COL105.6

Tackles

Tom1.6

COL48.4

Clearances

Tom0.6

COL35.6

Inside 50s

Tom1.0

COL55.2

Contested Poss.

Tom6.1

COL128.0

Goals

Tom0.1

COL11.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

COL concede · Handballs

162.1per game · league avg 155.5

#4 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At M.C.G.4.5(42)-0.5

Everywhere else5.0(122)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)3.9(15)-1.1

Dry games5.0(149)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.