Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Sam Collins

Gold Coast · vs MEL

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

1.2

0.8

L10

1.2

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 17.7°C☂ 0mm (28%)🌬 13.9 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

14.6Disposals382.0

7.6Kicks220.8

6.6Marks101.2

1.2Tackles51.0

0.2Clearances35.6

0.3Inside 50s52.3

6.1Contested Poss.129.3

0.0Goals13.1

Disposals

Sam14.6

MEL382.0

Kicks

Sam7.6

MEL220.8

Marks

Sam6.6

MEL101.2

Tackles

Sam1.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Sam0.2

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Sam0.3

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Sam6.1

MEL129.3

Goals

Sam0.0

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackles

51.0per game · league avg 56.9

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Carrara1.6(62)

Everywhere else1.5(91)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.1(7)-0.4

Dry games1.6(146)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.