Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Nick Holman

Gold Coast · vs MEL

2.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

50% (3/6)

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Avg

2.3

2.2

L10

2.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.8°C☂ 0.5mm (28%)🌬 15.2 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

11.0Disposals382.0

4.3Kicks220.8

2.3Marks101.2

2.3Tackles51.0

1.0Clearances35.6

1.3Inside 50s52.3

4.8Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Nick11.0

MEL382.0

Kicks

Nick4.3

MEL220.8

Marks

Nick2.3

MEL101.2

Tackles

Nick2.3

MEL51.0

Clearances

Nick1.0

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Nick1.3

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Nick4.8

MEL129.3

Goals

Nick0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackles

51.0per game · league avg 56.9

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Carrara4.2(50)+0.2

Everywhere else4.0(72)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)4.8(8)+0.7

Dry games4.1(114)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.