Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Matt Rowell

Gold Coast · vs MEL

11.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

38% (5/13)

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Avg

11.5

10.8

L10

11.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs MEL

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 17.7°C☂ 0mm (28%)🌬 13.9 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mattvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

24.4Disposals382.0

11.5Kicks220.8

2.2Marks101.2

6.2Tackles51.0

6.4Clearances35.6

3.7Inside 50s52.3

12.5Contested Poss.129.3

0.2Goals13.1

Disposals

Matt24.4

MEL382.0

Kicks

Matt11.5

MEL220.8

Marks

Matt2.2

MEL101.2

Tackles

Matt6.2

MEL51.0

Clearances

Matt6.4

MEL35.6

Inside 50s

Matt3.7

MEL52.3

Contested Poss.

Matt12.5

MEL129.3

Goals

Matt0.2

MEL13.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Kicks

220.8per game · league avg 213.8

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At Carrara11.3(47)+1.3

Everywhere else10.0(76)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)11.8(5)+1.3

Dry games10.5(118)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.