Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Luke Pedlar

Adelaide · @ ESS

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

40% (4/10)

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Avg

3.6

4.4

L10

3.6

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatESS concedePer game

9.5Disposals398.8

5.9Kicks232.6

2.9Marks116.9

2.1Tackles50.5

0.4Clearances33.3

1.7Inside 50s55.1

3.6Contested Poss.121.4

0.8Goals15.0

Disposals

Luke9.5

ESS398.8

Kicks

Luke5.9

ESS232.6

Marks

Luke2.9

ESS116.9

Tackles

Luke2.1

ESS50.5

Clearances

Luke0.4

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Luke1.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Luke3.6

ESS121.4

Goals

Luke0.8

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands2.0(3)-1.0

Everywhere else3.0(44)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)2.7(6)-0.4

Dry games3.0(41)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.