Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Josh Rachele

Adelaide · @ ESS

0.5 GAO —U —

Hit rate

56% (10/18)

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Avg

0.9

1.4

L10

1.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Joshvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

17.8Disposals398.8

11.9Kicks232.6

3.3Marks116.9

2.7Tackles50.5

1.9Clearances33.3

3.4Inside 50s55.1

7.1Contested Poss.121.4

1.7Goals15.0

Disposals

Josh17.8

ESS398.8

Kicks

Josh11.9

ESS232.6

Marks

Josh3.3

ESS116.9

Tackles

Josh2.7

ESS50.5

Clearances

Josh1.9

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Josh3.4

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Josh7.1

ESS121.4

Goals

Josh1.7

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Goal Assists

11.6per game · league avg 9.3

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Goal Assists

At Docklands0.8(6)+0.1

Everywhere else0.8(82)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Goal Assists

Wet games (≥1mm)0.9(8)+0.1

Dry games0.8(80)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.