Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Hugh Bond

Adelaide · @ ESS

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

43% (3/7)

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Avg

3.4

3.8

L10

3.4

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Hughvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

11.0Disposals398.8

7.6Kicks232.6

3.1Marks116.9

2.4Tackles50.5

0.6Clearances33.3

0.7Inside 50s55.1

3.4Contested Poss.121.4

0.0Goals15.0

Disposals

Hugh11.0

ESS398.8

Kicks

Hugh7.6

ESS232.6

Marks

Hugh3.1

ESS116.9

Tackles

Hugh2.4

ESS50.5

Clearances

Hugh0.6

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Hugh0.7

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Hugh3.4

ESS121.4

Goals

Hugh0.0

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands3.5(2)-1.0

Everywhere else4.5(17)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.3(3)-0.1

Dry games4.4(16)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.