Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jack Gunston

Hawthorn · vs NOR

0.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

42% (5/12)

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Avg

0.7

0.8

L10

0.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

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Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.6°C☂ 0mm (4%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jackvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

11.2Disposals340.7

9.1Kicks197.6

5.8Marks90.7

0.8Tackles54.6

0.2Clearances33.9

1.4Inside 50s52.3

3.7Contested Poss.119.2

3.3Goals13.4

Disposals

Jack11.2

NOR340.7

Kicks

Jack9.1

NOR197.6

Marks

Jack5.8

NOR90.7

Tackles

Jack0.8

NOR54.6

Clearances

Jack0.2

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Jack1.4

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Jack3.7

NOR119.2

Goals

Jack3.3

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park0.6(15)

Everywhere else0.6(91)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.8(14)+0.2

Dry games0.6(92)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.