Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Mitch Lewis

Hawthorn · vs NOR

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

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Avg

1.1

1.2

L10

1.3

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 vs NOR

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Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.6°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Mitchvs all playersStatNOR concedePer game

12.7Disposals340.7

8.4Kicks197.6

5.4Marks90.7

1.6Tackles54.6

0.3Clearances33.9

2.6Inside 50s52.3

4.9Contested Poss.119.2

1.7Goals13.4

Disposals

Mitch12.7

NOR340.7

Kicks

Mitch8.4

NOR197.6

Marks

Mitch5.4

NOR90.7

Tackles

Mitch1.6

NOR54.6

Clearances

Mitch0.3

NOR33.9

Inside 50s

Mitch2.6

NOR52.3

Contested Poss.

Mitch4.9

NOR119.2

Goals

Mitch1.7

NOR13.4

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NOR concede · Frees For

20.8per game · league avg 19.0

#3 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At York Park0.6(14)-0.3

Everywhere else0.9(80)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)1.1(11)+0.2

Dry games0.8(83)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.