AFL
PProjectPunt
Nick Watson
Nick Watson
Hawthorn · vs ESS
8.5 KIO U
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
enter odds to compare
Avg
8.1
L5
7.2
L10
7.5
High
13
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
11GWSMar 0713ESSMar 1310SYDMar 196GEEApr 067WBDApr 118PORApr 188GCSApr 258COLApr 309FREMay 076MELMay 168ADEMay 218STKMay 288WBDJun 057GCSJun 195GWSJun 268RICJul 19?ESSJul 258.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Nick13.4
ESS398.8
Kicks
Nick8.1
ESS232.6
Marks
Nick2.3
ESS116.9
Tackles
Nick2.3
ESS50.5
Clearances
Nick1.2
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Nick2.6
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Nick6.6
ESS121.4
Goals
Nick2.8
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Kicks

232.6per game · league avg 213.8
#1 of 18 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Kicks

At M.C.G.6.9(27)+0.5
Everywhere else6.4(32)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)8.4(7)+2.0
Dry games6.4(52)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.