AFL
PProjectPunt
Nick Watson
Nick Watson
Hawthorn · vs ESS
2.5 TKO U
Hit rate
44% (7/16)
enter odds to compare
Avg
2.3
L5
2.8
L10
2.1
High
5
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
4GWSMar 075ESSMar 131SYDMar 193GEEApr 063WBDApr 110PORApr 182GCSApr 252COLApr 302FREMay 071MELMay 160ADEMay 214STKMay 282WBDJun 054GCSJun 191GWSJun 263RICJul 19?ESSJul 252.5
Line Over Under

Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right

for Round 20 vs ESS
Game conditionsM.C.G. · MelbourneRound 20 · 2026-07-25 16:1513.6°C0.1mm (34%)🌬 12 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Disposals
Nick13.4
ESS398.8
Kicks
Nick8.1
ESS232.6
Marks
Nick2.3
ESS116.9
Tackles
Nick2.3
ESS50.5
Clearances
Nick1.2
ESS33.3
Inside 50s
Nick2.6
ESS55.1
Contested poss.
Nick6.6
ESS121.4
Goals
Nick2.8
ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Tackles

50.5per game · league avg 56.9
#16 of 18 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At M.C.G.1.8(27)-0.9
Everywhere else2.7(32)
Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)2.3(7)
Dry games2.3(52)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.