Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Lever

Melbourne · @ GCS

1.5 FFO —U —

Hit rate

35% (6/17)

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Avg

1.1

1.2

L10

0.9

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 17.7°C☂ 0mm (28%)🌬 13.9 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

15.2Disposals359.7

10.5Kicks206.6

7.3Marks83.4

1.5Tackles64.7

0.0Clearances38.2

0.8Inside 50s52.9

4.1Contested Poss.128.1

0.0Goals13.2

Disposals

Jake15.2

GCS359.7

Kicks

Jake10.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Jake7.3

GCS83.4

Tackles

Jake1.5

GCS64.7

Clearances

Jake0.0

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Jake0.8

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Jake4.1

GCS128.1

Goals

Jake0.0

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Frees For

21.4per game · league avg 19.0

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Frees For

At Carrara0.6(5)-0.2

Everywhere else0.8(131)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Frees For

Wet games (≥1mm)0.7(7)

Dry games0.8(129)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.