Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Jake Melksham

Melbourne · @ GCS

1.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

17% (1/6)

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Avg

1.0

1.2

L10

1.0

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ GCS

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Game conditionsCarrara · Gold CoastRound 21 · 2026-08-02 15:15☁ 16.8°C☂ 0.5mm (28%)🌬 15.2 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jakevs all playersStatGCS concedePer game

7.8Disposals359.7

4.5Kicks206.6

2.8Marks83.4

1.0Tackles64.7

0.2Clearances38.2

1.7Inside 50s52.9

3.2Contested Poss.128.1

1.3Goals13.2

Disposals

Jake7.8

GCS359.7

Kicks

Jake4.5

GCS206.6

Marks

Jake2.8

GCS83.4

Tackles

Jake1.0

GCS64.7

Clearances

Jake0.2

GCS38.2

Inside 50s

Jake1.7

GCS52.9

Contested Poss.

Jake3.2

GCS128.1

Goals

Jake1.3

GCS13.2

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GCS concede · Tackles

64.7per game · league avg 56.9

#1 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At Carrara1.5(6)-0.1

Everywhere else1.6(90)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)1.8(9)+0.2

Dry games1.6(87)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.