Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Taylor Walker

Adelaide · @ ESS

3.5 HBO —U —

Hit rate

33% (4/12)

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Avg

3.1

3.2

L10

2.7

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ ESS

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Game conditionsDocklands · MelbourneRound 21 · 2026-08-02 16:40Roof — weather neutral

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Taylorvs all playersStatESS concedePer game

10.7Disposals398.8

7.6Kicks232.6

4.8Marks116.9

1.3Tackles50.5

0.1Clearances33.3

2.5Inside 50s55.1

3.8Contested Poss.121.4

1.6Goals15.0

Disposals

Taylor10.7

ESS398.8

Kicks

Taylor7.6

ESS232.6

Marks

Taylor4.8

ESS116.9

Tackles

Taylor1.3

ESS50.5

Clearances

Taylor0.1

ESS33.3

Inside 50s

Taylor2.5

ESS55.1

Contested Poss.

Taylor3.8

ESS121.4

Goals

Taylor1.6

ESS15.0

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

ESS concede · Handballs

166.2per game · league avg 155.5

#2 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Handballs

At Docklands3.7(12)+0.2

Everywhere else3.5(134)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Handballs

Wet games (≥1mm)2.6(10)-1.0

Dry games3.6(136)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.