Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

CBR

Matthew Timoko

Canberra Raiders · @ MEL

14.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

47% (7/15)

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Avg

14.2

15.8

L10

15.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Matthewvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

142.8Run Metres1701.7

3.3Tackle Breaks33.0

11.3Tackles338.8

0.3Tries4.4

0.1Try Assists3.6

0.5Line Breaks6.3

1.1Offloads9.9

51.8Post Contact Metres571.8

Run Metres

Matthew142.8

MEL1701.7

Tackle Breaks

Matthew3.3

MEL33.0

Tackles

Matthew11.3

MEL338.8

Tries

Matthew0.3

MEL4.4

Try Assists

Matthew0.1

MEL3.6

Line Breaks

Matthew0.5

MEL6.3

Offloads

Matthew1.1

MEL9.9

Post Contact Metres

Matthew51.8

MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Runs

193.4per game · league avg 186.4

#5 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At AAMI Park11.4(5)-1.5

Everywhere else12.9(126)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)14.3(12)+1.5

Dry games12.7(119)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.