Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

CBR

Sebastian Kris

Canberra Raiders · @ GLD

11.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

67% (10/15)

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Avg

11.7

8.6

L10

11.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ GLD

Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 22 · 2026-08-01 15:00☁ 17.2°C☂ 0.2mm (36%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Sebastianvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game

113.1Run Metres1822.7

1.7Tackle Breaks33.8

9.5Tackles340.9

0.3Tries4.6

0.0Try Assists3.9

0.5Line Breaks4.8

0.9Offloads11.1

40.2Post Contact Metres594.6

Run Metres

Sebastian113.1

GLD1822.7

Tackle Breaks

Sebastian1.7

GLD33.8

Tackles

Sebastian9.5

GLD340.9

Tries

Sebastian0.3

GLD4.6

Try Assists

Sebastian0.0

GLD3.9

Line Breaks

Sebastian0.5

GLD4.8

Offloads

Sebastian0.9

GLD11.1

Post Contact Metres

Sebastian40.2

GLD594.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GLD concede · Runs

194.6per game · league avg 186.4

#3 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Cbus Super Stadium12.8(5)+1.9

Everywhere else10.9(119)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)11.1(14)+0.2

Dry games10.9(110)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.