Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

BRI

Patrick Carrigan

Brisbane Broncos · @ PEN

56.5 FPO —U —

Hit rate

67% (8/12)

enter odds to compare

Avg

56.1

51.2

L10

56.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ PEN

Game conditionsGlen Willow Oval · MudgeeRound 22 · 2026-08-01 17:30☁ 10°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 8.2 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Patrickvs all playersStatPEN concedePer game

133.5Run Metres1561.5

1.3Tackle Breaks30.5

45.8Tackles369.6

0.1Tries2.5

0.2Try Assists2.3

0.1Line Breaks3.9

0.5Offloads8.2

45.3Post Contact Metres546.8

Run Metres

Patrick133.5

PEN1561.5

Tackle Breaks

Patrick1.3

PEN30.5

Tackles

Patrick45.8

PEN369.6

Tries

Patrick0.1

PEN2.5

Try Assists

Patrick0.2

PEN2.3

Line Breaks

Patrick0.1

PEN3.9

Offloads

Patrick0.5

PEN8.2

Post Contact Metres

Patrick45.3

PEN546.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

PEN concede · Fantasy Points

614.9per game · league avg 645.9

#16 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Fantasy Points

At Glen Willow Oval—(0)

Everywhere else54.5(104)

Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Fantasy Points

Wet games (≥1mm)58.3(8)+4.1

Dry games54.2(96)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.