Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

BRI

Jesse Arthars

Brisbane Broncos · @ SGI

5.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

36% (4/11)

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Avg

5.9

3.4

L10

6.1

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ SGI

Game conditionsWIN Stadium · WollongongRound 22 · 2026-07-31 18:00☁ 11.5°C☂ 0.7mm (5%)🌬 13.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jessevs all playersStatSGI concedePer game

105.8Run Metres1917.7

1.7Tackle Breaks30.6

5.9Tackles343.1

0.5Tries5.2

0.1Try Assists3.8

0.5Line Breaks6.0

0.1Offloads8.5

30.9Post Contact Metres599.7

Run Metres

Jesse105.8

SGI1917.7

Tackle Breaks

Jesse1.7

SGI30.6

Tackles

Jesse5.9

SGI343.1

Tries

Jesse0.5

SGI5.2

Try Assists

Jesse0.1

SGI3.8

Line Breaks

Jesse0.5

SGI6.0

Offloads

Jesse0.1

SGI8.5

Post Contact Metres

Jesse30.9

SGI599.7

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

SGI concede · Tackles

343.1per game · league avg 345.6

#10 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Tackles

At WIN Stadium—(0)

Everywhere else6.0(104)

Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)10.3(6)+4.6

Dry games5.7(98)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.