Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SYD

Sam Walker

Sydney Roosters · @ GLD

12.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

38% (6/16)

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Avg

12.0

14.0

L10

13.1

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ GLD

Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 22 · 2026-08-01 15:00☁ 17.2°C☂ 0.2mm (36%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatGLD concedePer game

88.0Run Metres1822.7

1.3Tackle Breaks33.8

15.6Tackles340.9

0.4Tries4.6

0.9Try Assists3.9

0.3Line Breaks4.8

1.1Offloads11.1

11.6Post Contact Metres594.6

Run Metres

Sam88.0

GLD1822.7

Tackle Breaks

Sam1.3

GLD33.8

Tackles

Sam15.6

GLD340.9

Tries

Sam0.4

GLD4.6

Try Assists

Sam0.9

GLD3.9

Line Breaks

Sam0.3

GLD4.8

Offloads

Sam1.1

GLD11.1

Post Contact Metres

Sam11.6

GLD594.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GLD concede · Runs

194.6per game · league avg 186.4

#3 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Cbus Super Stadium9.5(2)+0.8

Everywhere else8.7(102)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)5.6(10)-3.5

Dry games9.1(94)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.