Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SYD

Sam Walker

Sydney Roosters · @ MEL

1.5 TBO —U —

Hit rate

38% (6/16)

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Avg

1.3

1.6

L10

1.5

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Samvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

88.0Run Metres1701.7

1.3Tackle Breaks33.0

15.6Tackles338.8

0.4Tries4.4

0.9Try Assists3.6

0.3Line Breaks6.3

1.1Offloads9.9

11.6Post Contact Metres571.8

Run Metres

Sam88.0

MEL1701.7

Tackle Breaks

Sam1.3

MEL33.0

Tackles

Sam15.6

MEL338.8

Tries

Sam0.4

MEL4.4

Try Assists

Sam0.9

MEL3.6

Line Breaks

Sam0.3

MEL6.3

Offloads

Sam1.1

MEL9.9

Post Contact Metres

Sam11.6

MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackle Breaks

33.0per game · league avg 32.6

#9 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Tackle Breaks

At AAMI Park0.5(6)-1.0

Everywhere else1.5(98)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks

Wet games (≥1mm)0.8(10)-0.7

Dry games1.5(94)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.