Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SYD

Connor Watson

Sydney Roosters · @ BRI

7.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

7.6

7.2

L10

6.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Connorvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

65.7Run Metres1842.7

1.6Tackle Breaks31.7

26.6Tackles323.2

0.1Tries4.3

0.1Try Assists3.2

0.0Line Breaks4.7

0.3Offloads10.1

21.4Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Connor65.7

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Connor1.6

BRI31.7

Tackles

Connor26.6

BRI323.2

Tries

Connor0.1

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Connor0.1

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Connor0.0

BRI4.7

Offloads

Connor0.3

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Connor21.4

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Runs

195.2per game · league avg 186.4

#2 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Suncorp Stadium10.1(14)+0.9

Everywhere else9.2(93)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)8.2(10)-1.2

Dry games9.4(97)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.