Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, yesterday

MEL

Harry Grant

Melbourne Storm · @ NQL

7.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

44% (8/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

7.9

7.8

L10

8.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ NQL

Game conditionsQueensland Country Bank Stadium · TownsvilleRound 22 · 2026-07-30 19:50☁ 20.4°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 16.5 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Harryvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game

55.3Run Metres1759.5

1.7Tackle Breaks36.2

38.4Tackles338.9

0.3Tries4.5

0.4Try Assists3.8

0.5Line Breaks5.8

0.6Offloads10.1

10.6Post Contact Metres610.3

Run Metres

Harry55.3

NQL1759.5

Tackle Breaks

Harry1.7

NQL36.2

Tackles

Harry38.4

NQL338.9

Tries

Harry0.3

NQL4.5

Try Assists

Harry0.4

NQL3.8

Line Breaks

Harry0.5

NQL5.8

Offloads

Harry0.6

NQL10.1

Post Contact Metres

Harry10.6

NQL610.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NQL concede · Runs

184.6per game · league avg 186.4

#10 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Runs

At Queensland Country Bank Stadium8.0(3)-1.1

Everywhere else9.1(118)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.9(7)-4.5

Dry games9.4(114)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.