Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Paul Curtis

North Melbourne · @ HAW

3.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

47% (7/15)

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Avg

3.5

4.4

L10

4.2

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ HAW

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Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.6°C☂ 0mm (4%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Paulvs all playersStatHAW concedePer game

12.2Disposals355.0

8.1Kicks205.1

3.9Marks81.7

3.5Tackles60.8

1.0Clearances34.2

2.1Inside 50s51.3

5.0Contested Poss.127.8

1.9Goals12.3

Disposals

Paul12.2

HAW355.0

Kicks

Paul8.1

HAW205.1

Marks

Paul3.9

HAW81.7

Tackles

Paul3.5

HAW60.8

Clearances

Paul1.0

HAW34.2

Inside 50s

Paul2.1

HAW51.3

Contested Poss.

Paul5.0

HAW127.8

Goals

Paul1.9

HAW12.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

HAW concede · Tackles

60.8per game · league avg 56.9

#5 of 18 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tackles

At York Park3.0(3)-0.2

Everywhere else3.2(90)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)3.8(5)+0.6

Dry games3.2(88)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.