Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SYD

Sitili Tupouniua

Sydney Roosters · @ GLD

12.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

43% (6/14)

enter odds to compare

Avg

12.3

14.4

L10

12.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ GLD

Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 22 · 2026-08-01 15:00☁ 17.2°C☂ 0.2mm (36%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Sitilivs all playersStatGLD concedePer game

111.8Run Metres1822.7

2.3Tackle Breaks33.8

31.0Tackles340.9

0.3Tries4.6

0.1Try Assists3.9

0.2Line Breaks4.8

0.3Offloads11.1

41.4Post Contact Metres594.6

Run Metres

Sitili111.8

GLD1822.7

Tackle Breaks

Sitili2.3

GLD33.8

Tackles

Sitili31.0

GLD340.9

Tries

Sitili0.3

GLD4.6

Try Assists

Sitili0.1

GLD3.9

Line Breaks

Sitili0.2

GLD4.8

Offloads

Sitili0.3

GLD11.1

Post Contact Metres

Sitili41.4

GLD594.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GLD concede · Runs

194.6per game · league avg 186.4

#3 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Cbus Super Stadium7.5(2)-1.1

Everywhere else8.6(94)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)6.3(6)-2.4

Dry games8.8(90)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.