Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

WAR

Jackson Ford

New Zealand Warriors · @ BRI

17.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

50% (7/14)

enter odds to compare

Avg

17.4

13.4

L10

17.0

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Jacksonvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

160.8Run Metres1842.7

2.0Tackle Breaks31.7

41.1Tackles323.2

0.3Tries4.3

0.0Try Assists3.2

0.4Line Breaks4.7

0.7Offloads10.1

66.4Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Jackson160.8

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Jackson2.0

BRI31.7

Tackles

Jackson41.1

BRI323.2

Tries

Jackson0.3

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Jackson0.0

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Jackson0.4

BRI4.7

Offloads

Jackson0.7

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Jackson66.4

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Runs

195.2per game · league avg 186.4

#2 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Suncorp Stadium8.3(8)-3.6

Everywhere else11.9(91)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)11.5(8)-0.1

Dry games11.6(91)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.