Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PEN

Paul Alamoti

Penrith Panthers · @ MEL

1.5 OFLO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

1.2

2.2

L10

1.3

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Paulvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

142.4Run Metres1701.7

4.2Tackle Breaks33.0

12.7Tackles338.8

0.2Tries4.4

0.2Try Assists3.6

0.5Line Breaks6.3

1.2Offloads9.9

41.9Post Contact Metres571.8

Run Metres

Paul142.4

MEL1701.7

Tackle Breaks

Paul4.2

MEL33.0

Tackles

Paul12.7

MEL338.8

Tries

Paul0.2

MEL4.4

Try Assists

Paul0.2

MEL3.6

Line Breaks

Paul0.5

MEL6.3

Offloads

Paul1.2

MEL9.9

Post Contact Metres

Paul41.9

MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Offloads

9.9per game · league avg 9.8

#9 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Offloads

At AAMI Park0.5(2)-0.3

Everywhere else0.8(75)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Offloads

Wet games (≥1mm)1.4(5)+0.6

Dry games0.8(72)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.