Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PEN

Paul Alamoti

Penrith Panthers · @ BRI

4.5 TBO —U —

Hit rate

33% (6/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

4.2

4.4

L10

3.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Paulvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

142.4Run Metres1842.7

4.2Tackle Breaks31.7

12.7Tackles323.2

0.2Tries4.3

0.2Try Assists3.2

0.5Line Breaks4.7

1.2Offloads10.1

41.9Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Paul142.4

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Paul4.2

BRI31.7

Tackles

Paul12.7

BRI323.2

Tries

Paul0.2

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Paul0.2

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Paul0.5

BRI4.7

Offloads

Paul1.2

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Paul41.9

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Tackle Breaks

31.7per game · league avg 32.6

#11 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Tackle Breaks

At Suncorp Stadium3.5(8)+0.1

Everywhere else3.4(69)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.0(5)+0.6

Dry games3.4(72)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.