Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PEN

Brian To'o

Penrith Panthers · @ MEL

0.5 OFLO —U —

Hit rate

25% (4/16)

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Avg

0.4

1.0

L10

0.5

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Brianvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

192.6Run Metres1701.7

4.6Tackle Breaks33.0

4.9Tackles338.8

0.7Tries4.4

0.0Try Assists3.6

0.9Line Breaks6.3

0.4Offloads9.9

65.7Post Contact Metres571.8

Run Metres

Brian192.6

MEL1701.7

Tackle Breaks

Brian4.6

MEL33.0

Tackles

Brian4.9

MEL338.8

Tries

Brian0.7

MEL4.4

Try Assists

Brian0.0

MEL3.6

Line Breaks

Brian0.9

MEL6.3

Offloads

Brian0.4

MEL9.9

Post Contact Metres

Brian65.7

MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Offloads

9.9per game · league avg 9.8

#9 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Offloads

At AAMI Park0.0(2)-0.6

Everywhere else0.6(116)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Offloads

Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(8)-0.6

Dry games0.6(110)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.