Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

Liam Henry

Penrith Panthers · @ NQL

32.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

56% (5/9)

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Avg

32.4

30.0

L10

32.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ NQL

Game conditionsQueensland Country Bank Stadium · TownsvilleRound 22 · 2026-07-30 19:50☁ 19.8°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 16.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Liamvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game

121.9Run Metres1759.5

1.3Tackle Breaks36.2

32.4Tackles338.9

0.2Tries4.5

0.1Try Assists3.8

0.4Line Breaks5.8

0.0Offloads10.1

39.6Post Contact Metres610.3

Run Metres

Liam121.9

NQL1759.5

Tackle Breaks

Liam1.3

NQL36.2

Tackles

Liam32.4

NQL338.9

Tries

Liam0.2

NQL4.5

Try Assists

Liam0.1

NQL3.8

Line Breaks

Liam0.4

NQL5.8

Offloads

Liam0.0

NQL10.1

Post Contact Metres

Liam39.6

NQL610.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NQL concede · Tackles

338.9per game · league avg 345.6

#13 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Queensland Country Bank Stadium24.6(5)-3.8

Everywhere else28.4(57)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)31.8(5)+4.1

Dry games27.7(57)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.