Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PEN

Luke Garner

Penrith Panthers · @ NQL

7.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

53% (8/15)

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Avg

7.7

6.4

L10

7.5

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ NQL

Game conditionsQueensland Country Bank Stadium · TownsvilleRound 22 · 2026-07-30 19:50☁ 19.8°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 16.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatNQL concedePer game

72.5Run Metres1759.5

1.6Tackle Breaks36.2

21.3Tackles338.9

0.2Tries4.5

0.1Try Assists3.8

0.3Line Breaks5.8

0.2Offloads10.1

27.7Post Contact Metres610.3

Run Metres

Luke72.5

NQL1759.5

Tackle Breaks

Luke1.6

NQL36.2

Tackles

Luke21.3

NQL338.9

Tries

Luke0.2

NQL4.5

Try Assists

Luke0.1

NQL3.8

Line Breaks

Luke0.3

NQL5.8

Offloads

Luke0.2

NQL10.1

Post Contact Metres

Luke27.7

NQL610.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NQL concede · Runs

184.6per game · league avg 186.4

#10 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Runs

At Queensland Country Bank Stadium6.8(5)-1.1

Everywhere else7.9(108)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)4.7(3)-3.3

Dry games7.9(110)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.