Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PEN

Luke Garner

Penrith Panthers · @ BRI

32.5 FPO —U —

Hit rate

40% (6/15)

enter odds to compare

Avg

32.0

30.0

L10

29.4

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (4%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

72.5Run Metres1842.7

1.6Tackle Breaks31.7

21.3Tackles323.2

0.2Tries4.3

0.1Try Assists3.2

0.3Line Breaks4.7

0.2Offloads10.1

27.7Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Luke72.5

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Luke1.6

BRI31.7

Tackles

Luke21.3

BRI323.2

Tries

Luke0.2

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Luke0.1

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Luke0.3

BRI4.7

Offloads

Luke0.2

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Luke27.7

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Fantasy Points

636.4per game · league avg 645.9

#11 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Fantasy Points

At Suncorp Stadium29.4(12)-4.4

Everywhere else33.8(101)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Fantasy Points

Wet games (≥1mm)14.7(3)-19.2

Dry games33.9(110)

Only 3 wet games on record — thin evidence.