Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Nick Larkey

North Melbourne · @ HAW

6.5 KIO —U —

Hit rate

39% (7/18)

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Avg

6.6

7.8

L10

6.6

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ HAW

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Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.6°C☂ 0mm (4%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Nickvs all playersStatHAW concedePer game

10.1Disposals355.0

6.6Kicks205.1

4.8Marks81.7

1.1Tackles60.8

0.0Clearances34.2

1.2Inside 50s51.3

4.4Contested Poss.127.8

2.0Goals12.3

Disposals

Nick10.1

HAW355.0

Kicks

Nick6.6

HAW205.1

Marks

Nick4.8

HAW81.7

Tackles

Nick1.1

HAW60.8

Clearances

Nick0.0

HAW34.2

Inside 50s

Nick1.2

HAW51.3

Contested Poss.

Nick4.4

HAW127.8

Goals

Nick2.0

HAW12.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

HAW concede · Kicks

205.1per game · league avg 213.8

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Kicks

At York Park6.5(4)+0.5

Everywhere else6.0(146)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Kicks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.5(8)-1.6

Dry games6.1(142)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.