Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, 2 days ago

BRI

Adam Reynolds

Brisbane Broncos · @ WST

51.5 RMO —U —

Hit rate

54% (7/13)

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Avg

51.5

64.0

L10

46.1

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ WST

Game conditionsCommBank Stadium · SydneyRound 22 · 2026-08-02 16:05☁ 17.6°C☂ 0mm (6%)🌬 9.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Adamvs all playersStatWST concedePer game

51.5Run Metres1749.4

1.0Tackle Breaks33.3

16.2Tackles339.1

0.2Tries5.3

0.4Try Assists4.6

0.1Line Breaks6.6

0.2Offloads9.1

7.8Post Contact Metres528.1

Run Metres

Adam51.5

WST1749.4

Tackle Breaks

Adam1.0

WST33.3

Tackles

Adam16.2

WST339.1

Tries

Adam0.2

WST5.3

Try Assists

Adam0.4

WST4.6

Line Breaks

Adam0.1

WST6.6

Offloads

Adam0.2

WST9.1

Post Contact Metres

Adam7.8

WST528.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

WST concede · Run Metres

1749.4per game · league avg 1690.5

#6 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Run Metres

At CommBank Stadium38.0(2)-15.2

Everywhere else53.2(114)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Run Metres

Wet games (≥1mm)43.0(9)-10.8

Dry games53.8(107)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.