Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

BRI

Xavier Willison

Brisbane Broncos · @ GLD

1.5 PTSO —U —

Hit rate

28% (5/18)

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Avg

1.1

0.8

L10

1.2

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ GLD

Game conditionsCbus Super Stadium · Gold CoastRound 22 · 2026-08-01 15:00☁ 17.2°C☂ 0.2mm (36%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Xaviervs all playersStatGLD concedePer game

130.6Run Metres1822.7

1.9Tackle Breaks33.8

34.2Tackles340.9

0.3Tries4.6

0.0Try Assists3.9

0.2Line Breaks4.8

0.5Offloads11.1

58.6Post Contact Metres594.6

Run Metres

Xavier130.6

GLD1822.7

Tackle Breaks

Xavier1.9

GLD33.8

Tackles

Xavier34.2

GLD340.9

Tries

Xavier0.3

GLD4.6

Try Assists

Xavier0.0

GLD3.9

Line Breaks

Xavier0.2

GLD4.8

Offloads

Xavier0.5

GLD11.1

Post Contact Metres

Xavier58.6

GLD594.6

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

GLD concede · Points

25.5per game · league avg 23.5

#5 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Points

At Cbus Super Stadium1.3(3)+0.5

Everywhere else0.8(67)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Points

Wet games (≥1mm)0.8(5)-0.1

Dry games0.9(65)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.