Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 20, 2 days ago

Luke McDonald

North Melbourne · @ HAW

5.5 MKO —U —

Hit rate

53% (9/17)

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Avg

5.5

5.0

L10

4.9

High

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Line Over Under

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for Round 21 @ HAW

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Game conditionsYork Park · LauncestonRound 21 · 2026-08-01 13:35☁ 12.6°C☂ 0mm (4%)🌬 14.6 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lukevs all playersStatHAW concedePer game

15.5Disposals355.0

10.1Kicks205.1

5.5Marks81.7

1.9Tackles60.8

0.2Clearances34.2

1.2Inside 50s51.3

3.2Contested Poss.127.8

0.1Goals12.3

Disposals

Luke15.5

HAW355.0

Kicks

Luke10.1

HAW205.1

Marks

Luke5.5

HAW81.7

Tackles

Luke1.9

HAW60.8

Clearances

Luke0.2

HAW34.2

Inside 50s

Luke1.2

HAW51.3

Contested Poss.

Luke3.2

HAW127.8

Goals

Luke0.1

HAW12.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

HAW concede · Marks

81.7per game · league avg 93.0

#15 of 18 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Marks

At York Park5.7(3)+0.8

Everywhere else4.9(136)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Marks

Wet games (≥1mm)4.3(7)-0.6

Dry games4.9(132)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.