P
Current to Round 21, today
DOL
Connelly Lemuelu
Dolphins · @ MEL
11.5 RUNO —U —
Hit rate
56% (10/18)
enter odds to compare
Avg
11.3
L5
11.8
L10
12.1
High
16
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
13SOUMar 08☂10GLDMar 1510CROMar 219BRIMar 274MANApr 0214PENApr 17☂11WARApr 2512MELMay 0110CBYMay 0712SOUMay 1515CBRMay 2113NQLJun 0612SYDJun 1211WSTJun 2014WARJun 2713NEWJul 05☂5CROJul 1116NQLJul 19?MELJul 3111.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Run Metres
Connelly106.4
MEL1701.7
Tackle Breaks
Connelly2.1
MEL33.0
Tackles
Connelly34.7
MEL338.8
Tries
Connelly0.2
MEL4.4
Try Assists
Connelly0.2
MEL3.6
Line Breaks
Connelly0.4
MEL6.3
Offloads
Connelly0.7
MEL9.9
Post Contact Metres
Connelly41.3
MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Runs

193.4per game · league avg 186.4
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At AAMI Park11.0(1)+1.7
Everywhere else9.3(101)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)10.0(8)+0.7
Dry games9.3(94)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.