Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

DOL

Connelly Lemuelu

Dolphins · @ BRI

34.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

56% (10/18)

enter odds to compare

Avg

34.7

35.0

L10

31.9

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Connellyvs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

106.4Run Metres1842.7

2.1Tackle Breaks31.7

34.7Tackles323.2

0.2Tries4.3

0.2Try Assists3.2

0.4Line Breaks4.7

0.7Offloads10.1

41.3Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Connelly106.4

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Connelly2.1

BRI31.7

Tackles

Connelly34.7

BRI323.2

Tries

Connelly0.2

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Connelly0.2

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Connelly0.4

BRI4.7

Offloads

Connelly0.7

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Connelly41.3

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Tackles

323.2per game · league avg 345.6

#16 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Suncorp Stadium27.8(36)+6.2

Everywhere else21.6(66)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)25.0(8)+1.3

Dry games23.7(94)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.