P
Current to Round 21, today
NQL
Valentine Holmes
North Queensland Cowboys · @ MEL
0.5 TO —U —
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
enter odds to compare
Avg
0.4
L5
0.6
L10
0.6
High
2
← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering
0CBYFeb 282MELMar 140PARMar 220GLDMar 290NQLApr 040MANApr 100SOUApr 180SYDApr 250NEWMay 090PENMay 170WARMay 232BRIMay 311CROJun 071NEWJun 190CBRJun 282WSTJul 040WARJul 180GLDJul 26?MELJul 310.5
Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL
Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (2%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly
Run Metres
Valentine122.8
MEL1701.7
Tackle Breaks
Valentine2.2
MEL33.0
Tackles
Valentine11.9
MEL338.8
Tries
Valentine0.4
MEL4.4
Try Assists
Valentine0.4
MEL3.6
Line Breaks
Valentine0.6
MEL6.3
Offloads
Valentine1.1
MEL9.9
Post Contact Metres
Valentine40.2
MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tries

4.4per game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Tries

At AAMI Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.4(118)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Tries

Wet games (≥1mm)0.3(4)-0.2
Dry games0.4(114)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.