Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

WAR

Marcelo Montoya

New Zealand Warriors · @ BRI

14.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

70% (7/10)

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Avg

14.7

9.2

L10

14.7

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ BRI

Game conditionsSuncorp Stadium · BrisbaneRound 22 · 2026-08-01 19:35☁ 14.3°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 8.4 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Marcelovs all playersStatBRI concedePer game

125.6Run Metres1842.7

3.3Tackle Breaks31.7

4.5Tackles323.2

0.1Tries4.3

0.0Try Assists3.2

0.3Line Breaks4.7

0.3Offloads10.1

37.9Post Contact Metres594.5

Run Metres

Marcelo125.6

BRI1842.7

Tackle Breaks

Marcelo3.3

BRI31.7

Tackles

Marcelo4.5

BRI323.2

Tries

Marcelo0.1

BRI4.3

Try Assists

Marcelo0.0

BRI3.2

Line Breaks

Marcelo0.3

BRI4.7

Offloads

Marcelo0.3

BRI10.1

Post Contact Metres

Marcelo37.9

BRI594.5

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

BRI concede · Runs

195.2per game · league avg 186.4

#2 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Runs

At Suncorp Stadium17.0(11)+1.5

Everywhere else15.5(99)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)16.0(8)+0.4

Dry games15.6(102)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.