Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

PAR

Luca Moretti

Parramatta Eels · @ WST

71.5 RMO —U —

Hit rate

46% (6/13)

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Avg

71.2

62.2

L10

79.1

High

117

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ WST

Game conditionsCommBank Stadium · SydneyRound 22 · 2026-08-02 16:05☁ 19.5°C☂ 0mm (7%)🌬 7.7 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Lucavs all playersStatWST concedePer game

71.2Run Metres1749.4

1.5Tackle Breaks33.3

18.1Tackles339.1

0.1Tries5.3

0.0Try Assists4.6

0.3Line Breaks6.6

0.5Offloads9.1

22.9Post Contact Metres528.1

Run Metres

Luca71.2

WST1749.4

Tackle Breaks

Luca1.5

WST33.3

Tackles

Luca18.1

WST339.1

Tries

Luca0.1

WST5.3

Try Assists

Luca0.0

WST4.6

Line Breaks

Luca0.3

WST6.6

Offloads

Luca0.5

WST9.1

Post Contact Metres

Luca22.9

WST528.1

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

WST concede · Run Metres

1749.4per game · league avg 1690.5

#6 of 17 most conceded

They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.

Venue split · Run Metres

At CommBank Stadium64.3(27)-2.7

Everywhere else67.0(23)

Since 2024, all stats real.

Wet vs dry · Run Metres

Wet games (≥1mm)99.0(1)+34.1

Dry games64.9(49)

Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.