Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

GLD

Brian Kelly

Gold Coast Titans · @ MEL

8.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

31% (5/16)

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Avg

8.3

5.6

L10

5.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ MEL

Game conditionsAAMI Park · MelbourneRound 22 · 2026-07-31 20:00☁ 7.2°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 3.8 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Brianvs all playersStatMEL concedePer game

166.7Run Metres1701.7

3.4Tackle Breaks33.0

8.3Tackles338.8

0.3Tries4.4

0.3Try Assists3.6

0.3Line Breaks6.3

1.4Offloads9.9

59.8Post Contact Metres571.8

Run Metres

Brian166.7

MEL1701.7

Tackle Breaks

Brian3.4

MEL33.0

Tackles

Brian8.3

MEL338.8

Tries

Brian0.3

MEL4.4

Try Assists

Brian0.3

MEL3.6

Line Breaks

Brian0.3

MEL6.3

Offloads

Brian1.4

MEL9.9

Post Contact Metres

Brian59.8

MEL571.8

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

MEL concede · Tackles

338.8per game · league avg 345.6

#14 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At AAMI Park16.3(3)+3.5

Everywhere else12.9(119)

Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)12.6(8)-0.3

Dry games13.0(114)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.