Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SOU

Alex Johnston

South Sydney Rabbitohs · @ NQL

12.5 RUNO —U —

Hit rate

33% (5/15)

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Avg

12.5

12.6

L10

12.6

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ NQL

Game conditionsQueensland Country Bank Stadium · TownsvilleRound 22 · 2026-07-30 19:50☁ 19.8°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 16.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Alexvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game

138.5Run Metres1759.5

2.3Tackle Breaks36.2

4.1Tackles338.9

1.4Tries4.5

0.4Try Assists3.8

1.7Line Breaks5.8

0.5Offloads10.1

26.7Post Contact Metres610.3

Run Metres

Alex138.5

NQL1759.5

Tackle Breaks

Alex2.3

NQL36.2

Tackles

Alex4.1

NQL338.9

Tries

Alex1.4

NQL4.5

Try Assists

Alex0.4

NQL3.8

Line Breaks

Alex1.7

NQL5.8

Offloads

Alex0.5

NQL10.1

Post Contact Metres

Alex26.7

NQL610.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NQL concede · Runs

184.6per game · league avg 186.4

#10 of 17 most conceded

Middle of the road matchup.

Venue split · Runs

At Queensland Country Bank Stadium11.5(2)+0.1

Everywhere else11.4(112)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Runs

Wet games (≥1mm)11.9(14)+0.6

Dry games11.4(100)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.