Project Punt — AFL & NRL props, checked

Current to Round 21, today

SOU

Alex Johnston

South Sydney Rabbitohs · @ NQL

4.5 TKO —U —

Hit rate

53% (8/15)

enter odds to compare

Avg

4.1

3.6

L10

3.8

High

← the line Sportsbet/TAB is offering

Line Over Under

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for Round 22 @ NQL

Game conditionsQueensland Country Bank Stadium · TownsvilleRound 22 · 2026-07-30 19:50☁ 19.8°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 16.1 km/hClear

Matchup Analyser

Percentile rankings · 2026

higher = more over-friendly

Alexvs all playersStatNQL concedePer game

138.5Run Metres1759.5

2.3Tackle Breaks36.2

4.1Tackles338.9

1.4Tries4.5

0.4Try Assists3.8

1.7Line Breaks5.8

0.5Offloads10.1

26.7Post Contact Metres610.3

Run Metres

Alex138.5

NQL1759.5

Tackle Breaks

Alex2.3

NQL36.2

Tackles

Alex4.1

NQL338.9

Tries

Alex1.4

NQL4.5

Try Assists

Alex0.4

NQL3.8

Line Breaks

Alex1.7

NQL5.8

Offloads

Alex0.5

NQL10.1

Post Contact Metres

Alex26.7

NQL610.3

Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.

NQL concede · Tackles

338.9per game · league avg 345.6

#13 of 17 most conceded

Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.

Venue split · Tackles

At Queensland Country Bank Stadium2.0(2)-1.8

Everywhere else3.8(112)

Only 2 games at this ground — thin evidence.

Wet vs dry · Tackles

Wet games (≥1mm)4.1(14)+0.4

Dry games3.8(100)

Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.